Table 7 identifies fifteen industries that grew faster in Marion County than the nation and generated more than $1 million dollars each in extra earnings. Take engineering and management services as an example. Its earnings increased by 171 percent in Marion County from 1988 to 1996, 103 percentage points faster than the national rate (not shown, but 68 percent). It generated $10.8 million in earnings in Marion in 1996, $4.1 million of which represents the faster growth. The location quotients show engineering and management remains under-represented in Marion County but increased to 49 percent of the national norm by 1996.

These findings are exciting for Marion County. Table 7 shows growth at faster than national rates for an impressive group of service industries that are considered crucial for economic development and prosperity. Within manufacturing, it shows unusually fast growth in nondurable goods and lumber and woods products, the latter long a target of West Virginia economic development initiatives. Trucking and warehousing are doing very well, as one might hope for a centrally located county with a long tradition of truck transportation. The construction boom looms very large, with an extra $18 million in earnings in special trades alone. Both the federal and state government have grown faster than national rates, and even coal mining did so by $8 million.

Table 7. Selected industries with faster earnings growth in Marion County than nation, 1988-96.

For skeptics there should be ample and sufficient signs of renaissance in Table 7 to convince them that Marion County indeed will grow. Yet for those who never doubted and consider the Comp forecast too conservative, there are warnings in Table 7. The data show strengths but also possible weaknesses in the Marion economy, which justify the caution.

Coal mining has the largest payroll of every industry in Table 7, almost $70 million dollars in 1996, and, although it grew faster than the nation in Marion County, the major mines are known to have a limited life span. That payroll is disappearing, and it represents more than 11 percent of total county earnings. To reinforce what these closings mean, note that the entire retail trade sector provided earnings of $62 million in 1996 and all manufacturing provided $74 million. Marion County will be adjusting to a loss of earnings of about that magnitude.

The construction boom might be just that, meaning it is temporary. Table 7 shows that construction is over-represented in the county economy. There can be two explanations. The construction companies might be based in Marion County but are serving a larger geographic area. In that case, the specialization in construction might represent a true comparative advantage, and its contribution to the Marion economy will be as sustained as is possible in that cyclical industry. On the other hand, if the construction activity is related largely to specific projects that will or have come to an end, then the county may have to cope with yet another major reduction in earnings.

Earnings from federal employment are much less than construction or mining, $15 million in 1996. Yet this income stream might also become smaller. After many years with about 200 federal civilian jobs, the number increased to 555 in 1994 and 947 in 1995 before decreasing to 383 in 1996. This pattern apparently results from the location of some FBI jobs in the county while the new facility in Harrison County was being constructed. Additional reductions may occur in the county as a result of this transition. Note that even with the temporary jobs included, Marion County has less than its national share of federal employment. The gap has closed, but in 1996 Marion had 82 percent of its share, up from 38 percent.

In summary, Marion County remains in transition. The worst of its wrenching transformation is behind it, and impressive new sources of growth are taking root. Yet the cautious optimism of the forecasts is necessary. Higher forecasts might in time prove more accurate, but the key word is caution. Too many developments are too new, like the construction activity and the enlarged federal presence, or looming on the horizon, like the impending manufacturing and mining closures, to justify the bold leap to higher forecasts at this time. The data merit continued monitoring. In two to five years, the evidence might well be overwhelming: Marion County is not only growing but growing rapidly in a manner that will be sustained over the long-term.

For the purpose of transportation planning, it is not enough to estimate how much increase in population and employment may occur in Marion County. It is also important to know where those increases may occur within the County.

To accomplish this, a methodology was developed to allocate the projected increases in population and employment to the various traffic analysis zones. This allocation was based on an evaluation of each zone in relation to several key growth factors. These were

(1) available buildable land, (2) the availability of sanitary sewer service, (3) transportation access, and (4) market trend patterns.

A cumulative score was calculated for each zone related to both population and employment, with the factors weighted somewhat differently in each instance. In the instance of employment, the availability of sizable buildable tracts of land was deemed to be somewhat more critical factor than the other three and so was weighted more heavily in the score calculations. In the instance of residential development buildable land was also given more weight than other factors, but market patterns were also given more consideration.

The calculation of a score was based on the assumption that the various factors would have an exponential relationship rather than an additive relationship. Thus a zone that scores highly on each of the four factors would receive significantly higher preference in the allocation of population and employment.

The formulas used for calculating the allocation score were as follows:

Employment:
(Available land x 3) x Utility availability x transportation access x market patterns = score

Households:
(Available land x 5 x Utility availability x transportation access x (market patterns x 3) = score

The results of this process are shown in Table 8 and are mapped in Figures 9 & 10

Table 8. Marion County/Fairmont - Distributed Forecast of Employment and Population

Figure 10 Population Map

Figure 11 Employment Map

Development Factors and Trends Analysis: Part 1 | Part2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5