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Further Evidence Cautious assumptions were made in generating the employment forecast. Nevertheless, some still will doubt that Marion County will grow again, while others will insist that the forecast is too cautious. This section is directed to both. It provides additional information on how key sectors in the Marion economy have been faring. By showing that some key growth industries are growing faster in Marion County than in the nation, it should help convince the doubters that Marion County will grow and prosper again. By providing hard statistical confirmation of the developments local leaders have long pursued, it might embolden them to seek higher forecasts, but the data also contain ample reasons for being pleased and cautious. Focusing on the Comp forecast, the greatest single increase is in the services sector, and the largest declines are in the manufacturing and mining sectors. Decisions about changes in those sectors dominate the forecasts, just as changes in those sectors have dominated the transformation of Marion County over the past quarter-century. As can be seen in Table 2, changes in retail trade, state and local government, and construction are also numerically important in the forecasts. Are the decisions about any of those sectors too conservative? Further evidence is sought in two empirical analyses. Table 5. Employment for Marion County, 1996, and projected employment change, 1996-2020.
The first analysis focuses on the present specialization of the economy within these sectors. The list of industries that are over-represented in the county can provide some clues to its future strengths. Over-representation or specialization here simply means that an industry is a larger share of the Marion economy than of the national economy. The most recent data available for this kind of analysis are for 1995. They come from County Business Patterns issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and they are refined using software developed at the Regional Research Institute of West Virginia University. The numbers are presented in Table 6. The column headed units shows the number of establishments in an industry; the one >100, establishments with more than 100 employees; jobs, estimated or actual employment in March of 1995; LQ, a measure of specialization where 150 for bituminous coal underground means that such mining is 150 times the share of the Marion economy than of the national; and X-jobs, a measure of that specialization in terms of jobs where 1,311 for bituminous coal means that Marion has 1,311 more jobs in the industry than its national proportionate share. The table includes all industries for which Marion has at least 50 more jobs than the national norm. Within services the county’s specialization is most noteworthy in medical laboratories and nursing and personal care facilities, as well as in commercial banking within the finances sector. The retail sector shows specialization in grocery stores, service stations, car dealers, department stores, variety stores, and general merchandise stores. Federal civilian, state, and local government are all over-represented in the county, too. Except for medical laboratories and banking, the areas of specialization within the three main growth sectors are fairly traditional industries, not the current glamour industries, such as business services, computers and software, communication technologies, tourism, and specialized boutique stores and mega-stores. Yet the retail specialization may reflect the filling in of the I-79 corridor and Marion County’s advantageous location at the center of the region transversed by the interstate. This data, by showing signs of strength but revealing the traditional nature of the Marion economy, support the cautious approach embodied in the Comp forecast. Table 6. Specialization of Marion County employment, 1995.
Turning to the three key declining sectors, Marion County’s specialization reflects its proud history in heavy manufacturing and mining. Its manufacturing sector has many one or two establishment industries, most noteworthy of which are its imperiled electric lamp factory, its aluminum sheet, plate, and foil facility, and its manufacturers of fabricated plate work, relays and industrial controls, and pumps. It also has a cluster of printers and wood product manufacturers. In addition, the county still had four underground coal mines, three of which had more than 250 employees in 1995. It also had eight times its share of employment in electrical services, with two companies with more than 100 employees each, one having more than 250. The county also shows specialization in wholesale of waste and scrap materials and various kinds of machinery. The construction boom is also evident in table 3. Although many of these industries have and will experience adversity, the skills of their workforce constitute a potentially important and enduring asset for future economic development focused on newer industries and products that require such machinery-related skills and experience. The second analysis focuses on both recent change and specialization. It shows that Marion County has made impressive progress in new industries—progress that creates a foundation for future growth. The analysis uses earnings data because the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce makes earnings data available at a more detailed industrial level than employment data. The period 1988 to 1996 is the longest and most recent period for which data with a common industrial classification is available. The analysis compares the Marion County growth rate to the national growth rate for each industry and transforms that difference into dollar terms. Development Factors and Trends Analysis: Part 1 | Part2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5 |
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| FAIRMONT/MARION
COUNTY MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN Final Report |
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