The I-79 Context

Marion County is part of the five-county I-79 region. The region has grown fairly steadily in employment over the past quarter century. The one exception is the period, 1979-83. Its manufacturing and mining industries were hit particularly hard then, as was such heavy industry nationally and in many other countries. Figure 8 shows that the region grew from about 95,000 to more than 125,000 jobs, with the private sector generating almost 20,000 new jobs.

Figure 8. Total and private employment growth of the I-79 region, 1969-96.

Marion County is geographically at the center of this growing region. Although well positioned to benefit from the growth in the two larger counties to its north and south, Marion County has grown more slowly than the region as a whole. In fact, its role within the region has changed. In the 1970s more people with homes elsewhere came into Marion County to work than the other way around. Consequently, as much as $10 million a year net in earnings leaked out of the county because of commuting. In short, Marion County was a regional employment center. Partly as a result of its loss of manufacturing and mining jobs, that balance reversed itself during the late 1980s and early 1990s. As much as $16 million a year net flowed into the county because of Marion residents working elsewhere. Although this trend was interrupted in 1995-96, possibly as a result of temporary federal jobs in the county, the changing reality can be seen in other statistics. In 1969 Marion County had 27 percent of the region’s jobs, but in 1996 only 20 percent. In 1969 Marion County housed 27 percent of the region’s population, but in 1996 only 24 percent. Thus, whereas its population and employment shares were once equal, Marion County’s population share is now larger than its employment share. Marion County has become relatively more dependent on jobs elsewhere in the I-79 region, and it holds a smaller share of the region’s people and jobs.

In light of Marion’s dependence on the I-79 region, this analysis will begin with a simple projection of regional employment to gauge its implications for Marion County. Projecting the region’s employment to the year 2020 yields 162,000 jobs under the conservative assumption that the region can grow again at the same rate it did the previous quarter-century (1.05 percent annually). This assumption is conservative because that growth rate includes the effects of the major declines of the region’s manufacturing and mining industries. That decline cannot be repeated at the same scale because those jobs are no longer there and the transition away from the region’s old manufacturing and mining base is nearing completion.

This regional employment projection can be used as a consistency check on the demographic forecast for Marion County. Taking the I-79 employment projection and multiplying it by a population-employment ratio yields a projection of the region’s population. Then the regional population can be compared to the Marion County forecast (63,018 people in 2020) to see whether Marion County’s implied share of the region is realistic.

A crucial step when using this method is deciding what assumption to make about the population-employment ratio in the region. The ratio has fallen considerably in the United States as female labor force participation has increased and the number of children per household has decreased. Those forces have dominated trends that would increase the ratio, including the growing proportion of elderly residents and the increased number of people holding two jobs. Economic growth and declining unemployment tend to decrease the ratio, while adverse economic conditions increase it. In 1996 the region had 1.9 residents, including children and elderly, for every job, compared to 2.5 residents per job in 1969. The United States fell through the 1.9 threshold in 1986 and now has 1.7 people per job.

Figure 9 shows the population-employment ratio since 1969 for the nation, state, region, and five counties. Two noteworthy trends are the convergence between the I-79 region and the United States and the divergence between Marion County and Monongalia and Harrison. Marion now has a much higher population-employment ratio than they do. The gap reflects its changing regional role and its greater economic adversity, the other two having grown 88 and 24 percent in jobs, while Marion grew only 3 percent. Marion County has more people per job than the state, and within the region, only Taylor, an extreme case, and Lewis have higher ratios.

Figure 9. Population-employment ratios in the nation, state, and region, 1969-96.

Turning to the future, one reasonable assumption is that the I-79 region will continue to converge with the nation. The national trend appears to have bottomed out with relative stability over the past decade. Furthermore, the aging baby boom population will contribute an increase in the population-employment ratio in 2020. Putting these facts together makes 1.74, the current U.S. ratio, a reasonable guess for the I-79 region in 2020. Combining this ratio with the 162,000 jobs gives a 2020 population of 282,000 in the I-79 region.

A regional population of 282,000 in 2020 means 18 percent growth, twice the growth rate forecast for Marion County in Part I. Marion’s share of the regional population would decline from 24 percent to 22 percent. Viewed regionally, the forecast of growth in Marion County, perhaps a radical concept in itself after two decades of decline, seems instead to be a very reasonable, even conservative forecast. Note that the regional projection also was based on two fairly conservative assumptions: the region could maintain its annual employment growth of 1.05 percent from the previous quarter century, and its population-employment ratio would continue to decline. Lest this I-79 growth seems overly optimistic, consider that if the region maintained the employment growth rate it has had over the past ten years (1.87 percent), it would have 194,000 jobs by 2020 and a population of 338,000.

In summary, Marion County is at the center of a growing region and itself will continue to grow. The forecast of a 2020 population of 63,000 is consistent with the region’s growth prospects. Marion County will have a smaller share of a larger region, but it will have more people than it has today and an end to its population decline.

The Marion County Economy

The analysis now turns to jobs in Marion County. Employment projections by industry are necessary starting points in modeling transportation flows and making land use and transportation plans. They also provide another perspective for reviewing the reasonableness of the population forecast.

Table 4 presents five sets of employment projections. Each consists of projections for individual industries or sectors, which are added together to project total, private, government, and nonfarm employment. The five sets differ by their underlying assumptions. The first three are exponential projections, which means they continue historical growth rates into the future. The three vary because of the length of the period over which the historical rates are calculated. E71 uses 1971-96 growth rates, E76 uses 1976-96 rates, and E86 uses 1986-96 rates. Thus, they incorporate 25-year, 20-year, and 10-year trends for Marion County, respectively. Note that the shortest period leads to the highest projected employment, almost 40,000 jobs in 2020 and 7,000 to 8,000 more jobs than with the longer periods. These numbers reflect the fact that the Marion economy has fared better in the past decade than the previous one.

The fourth projection set, L71, is a linear projection. It extends into the future the average annual change in the number of jobs, not the growth rate. Linear projections are particularly useful in coping with extreme growth rates that are unlikely to continue. As an industry grows, more and more jobs must be created each successive year to maintain a fixed growth rate. Linear projections produce more modest numbers by allowing the growth rate to decrease while adding the same number of new jobs each year. On the other hand, for industries that have declined, such as manufacturing in Marion County, linear projections can produce nonsensical results—negative employment—by subtracting the same number of jobs each year from a dwindling industry. Exponential projections avoid this problem by applying a fixed rate of decline to the successively smaller employment base and, thus, subtracting fewer and fewer jobs over time.

Table 4. Employment projections for Marion County, 2020.

The fifth set, Comp, combines the rather conservative 25-year trend from E71 with three even lower projections from L71 or E86. The net effect is 2,400 fewer jobs than E71, primarily by projecting less growth in agricultural services, mining, and state and local government. The rationales for the three substitutions vary. Agricultural services, which includes veterinarians and landscape services, is a small sector that has grown from 22 jobs in 1969 to 188 in 1996. If that rapid rate of growth continues, as E71 assumes, it would have 1,474 jobs in 2020, which seems very unlikely. Therefore, Comp uses the linear extrapolation of L71 to 347 jobs instead. Note that the growth has already slowed, and that the growth rate of the past decade E86 implies half as many jobs as the quarter-century rate. Mining has already decreased from its 1996 level of 1,346 jobs, and all the major underground mines are expected to be closed well before 2020. Therefore, Comp replaces the E71 projection of 750 mining jobs with the L71 projection of 261, which seems reasonable since some coal, as well as natural gas, iron ore, and other materials, probably will continue to be mined in the county. Finally, state and local government expanded from

2,700 to 4,000 jobs over the quarter-century, but the rate of growth slowed markedly after the first five years. Accordingly, a more prudent choice is either E76 or E86, which project 800 fewer jobs than E71 and differ by only one job. Marion County’s central location within the region might lead to its receiving more state government employment as facilities continue to consolidate and Fairmont State University serves an even broader constituency, but to date no such trend is discernable and the county hosts about 8 percent of the region’s state employment.

The Comp employment forecast of 30,273 together with the population forecast of 63,018 produces a population-employment ratio of 2.08. Viewed in the context of Figure 2, this future ratio is the lowest ever for Marion County but still above the present West Virginia and I-79 ratios. This ratio is consistent with the view that Marion County will grow but that a greater proportion of its prosperity will come from jobs elsewhere within the I-79 region. The projections of 30,272 jobs in the county and 162,000 jobs in the region (see previous section) mean that Marion’s share of the jobs will decrease to 19 percent of the region from today’s 20 percent and 1969’s 27 percent.

Although calling for 4,500 additional jobs or 17 percent growth between 1996 and 2020, the Comp employment forecast is cautious and conservative. In contrast, the E86 series yields 14,000 additional jobs, and the E71 series almost 7,000 for growth rates of 55 and 27 percent, respectively. Even those two series do nothing more radical than assume that the last ten-year or twenty-five year growth rates can be maintained by each industry—and neither the quarter century nor the decade was a boom period unlikely to be replicated. If anything, the opposite is true, and Marion County ought to be able to do better in the future than it did then.

The E71 projections would give Marion County 20 percent of the region’s employment in 2020, its present share. The still higher E86 numbers imply a 24 percent share. These comparisons admittedly have a circularity because alternative projections are also possible for the region, but the comparisons suffice to underscore once more that the population and employment forecasts presented here—and the return to growth—are not unfounded wishes but actually cautious interpretations of trends visible today.

Some in Marion County and the I-79 region would argue that the bolder projections like E71 and E86 are more likely views of the Marion County future. They might be right. The center might fill in again, and Marion County might reestablish a balance between its share of jobs and population and develop a population-employment ratio more like those of its larger neighbors to the north and south. The concluding section will look for evidence of strength in more detailed data for the Marion County economy. Nevertheless, for planning purposes the goal of making Marion County a more desirable residential location within its growing region is consistent with a conservative, realistic interpretation of the data. Marion County will grow in population and employment. Jobs will follow people. The more attractive Marion becomes as a residential location within the region, the more likely its employment growth will accelerate as well.

The five projection series embody the major economic trends discussed in the population section: the decrease in jobs in manufacturing, mining, and transportation and public utilities and the increase in jobs in services, retail trade, and state and local government. The Comp forecast continues those trends into the future but avoids their most drastic manifestations. For example, the services sector is forecast to add almost 4,000 jobs but not the 7,600 implied by the growth rate of the past decade. Likewise, retail trade is forecast to add about 700 jobs, not over 1,000, and state and local government is forecast to add 800 jobs, not 1,600. Also, construction is forecast to add 900 jobs, not the 3,900 implied by the past decade’s growth of 5 percent per year, which may be the result of a temporary construction boom underway in 1995 and 1996. Again, choices such as these make the forecast a conservative one. Table 5 shows the changes projected in each sector according to the five series.

Development Factors and Trends Analysis: Part 1 | Part2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5