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Figure 5. Trends in three major growing sectors, 1969-96. Table 2. Employment by sector, Marion County, 1969-96.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Another trend that supports the growth scenario of D90 is the development of the I-79 Corridor. Marion County is situated between two larger, growing economies. Spillover and spread of growth has already happened from Monongalia and Harrison counties and can be expected to continue. Figure 6 shows the Marion economy starting to follow a growth pattern similar to that of its two neighbors. The interstate also makes it easy for people residing in Marion County to take jobs at the large employment magnets in the region, such as the hospitals and major federal facilities in both counties, West Virginia University, and numerous other employers. Being a central part of the I-79 corridor, thus, also will shield Marion County from the kind of major decline it suffered in the 1980s. Figure 6. Marion County in the I-79 context, total employment, 1969-96. Formerly employment change in Marion County led directly to population change, but evidence exits that this link between employment and population has been broken or at least greatly weakened. In Figure 7 employment and population are both indexed at 100 in 1969. Note how population followed employment upward after 1975 and then downward after employment peaked in 1979. The data since 1989 show population much more stable relative to employment, another indication that demographic change will be less vulnerable to economic change. Also, if the 1989-96 economic changes had created a large demographic response, the D90 projections could be suspect because large changes are hard to sustain. Instead, Figure 7 suggests that the D90 projections do not at all embody extreme migration rates. Figure 7. Employment and population growth indexes, Marion County, 1969-96. The Future The forecast of 63,000 people in the year 2020 is both modest and radical. It is modest because the growth it forecasts, 9%, brings Marion County back to its 1960 population level. It is radical because it states categorically that the Marion County will grow again, and that the years of decline fueled by national and international trends in heavy manufacturing and mining are now over. A new Marion County is emerging. It is new economically because of the nature of its major employers, but it will also be new geographically by the nature of the location factors valued by its employers and residents. The interstate is a dominant new force that attracts growth toward it in Marion County as its does near the other urban centers in the United States. Demographically the change in Marion County will also follow national trends. Comparing 1995 and 2020, the largest increases will be in the ages 50 to 74. Table 3 shows the population by age group in the D90 forecast. Following a particular age group diagonally through the table as it grows older, one can see the effects of migration. For example, there are 4,470 20-24 year-olds in 2000 but 3,811 25-29 year-olds in 2005, meaning this age group has more people leaving the county than entering it. The radical fact is that no other age group has more people leaving than entering. With its educational institutions and economic transformation, the region is able to hold on to its youth. Marion County has turned the corner and is growing again. Table 3. Population forecast by age, Marion County, 1995-2020. Further Research One more analytical step remains to be taken, the creation of employment projections and forecasts. Preliminary results suggest that any revision of the population forecast as a result of the economic forecasts will be in the direction of further growth. The key question remaining to be explored is the extent to which Marion County will be the home of a larger share of the I-79 corridor population working outside of the county. That determination will require bringing together the employment forecasts for the region with the land use and transportation analysis for the county. Development Factors and Trends Analysis: Part 1 | Part2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5 |
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| FAIRMONT/MARION
COUNTY MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN Final Report |
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