Prepared by: Dr. Andrew Isserman - University of Illinois

This report is part of a series of reports that have been prepared during the development of the Fairmont Marion County Multi-modal Transportation Plan. This report contains an analysis of demographic and employment trends in Marion County that has been prepared for the purpose of providing background data for use in the development of the Plan.

The demographic analysis contained herein has been prepared by Dr. Andrew Isserman who is currently a member of the faculty at the University of Illinois. Until recently, Dr. Isserman was the Director of the Regional Research Institute at West Virginia University, and thus has an extensive background in the analysis of demographic and employment trends in the State of West Virginia.

This report presents several population and employment projections for Marion County. It describes the methods, presents the projections, points out key assumptions, and provides important background information on the county’s economic and demographic change. This report provides several projections in order to stimulate informed discussion of the county’s future, but it recommends one of those projections as the most likely one. This report forecasts almost 10% population growth and a population level of 63,000 by the year 2020.

This report also presents employment projections and forecasts. Its objective is to determine whether economic trends and conditions support the contention that Marion County will grow after two decades of decline. The analysis focuses first on the I-79 economy and then the Marion economy. Both analyses provide evidence in support of the forecast that Marion County’s population will increase. Indeed, forecasts of 10 percent population growth and 19 percent employment growth seem cautious, conservative interpretations of recent trends.

Finally, this report includes the assignment of future increases in population and employment to specific areas of the County. This step is necessary to provide the data required for modeling future transportation needs.

The method used for this analysis is an interregional version of the cohort-component model, the preferred technique of demographers when making population projections. The cohort-component model divides the population into cohorts by age and gender (and sometimes race) and focuses on the components of population change, primarily births, deaths, and net migration. The interregional cohort-component model differs from the standard one by focusing on immigration and outmigration separately. This important refinement corrects several biases and problems with the standard net migration approach that are particularly important when making projections for areas that have been declining. An article in the Journal of the American Planning Association (Isserman 1993) describes the method in detail and received a National Planning Award from the American Planning Association in 1994.

Key to making projections with the cohort-component model is the choice of birth rates, survival rates, and migration rates. Most demographers simply use the most recent migration data by age and gender available from the Census Bureau, which today means 1985-90 migration, and birth and death rates for the most recent census year, in this case, 1990. The method used here makes three major departures from these conventional procedures because of the boom and bust nature of growth in many parts of West Virginia and the known dangers of forecasting on the basis of short-term rates and fluctuations. It averages migration rates over longer time periods, creates multiple projection series, and creates and incorporates birth and migration rates based on events after 1990.

Four projection series are presented in Table 1. They incorporate migration rates for 1990-95, 1985-95, 1980-95, and 1975-95, respectively. All use estimated 1995 birth rates and the most recent Census Bureau projections of the national population. They take their names from the first migration year; for example, Series D75 uses 1975-95 migration rates.

Table 1. Population Projections, Marion County, Four Series, 1995-2020.

One projection series stands out. The 1990-95 migration rates, D90, predict population growth of 9% between 1995 and 2020, while those based on longer time periods predict virtually no change. Yet the lone projection that shows growth seems to be the most realistic portrayal of Marion County’s future, for reasons that are explained in this report. In essence, as shall be seen, the economic events that dominated the 1975-90 period and cause the modest projections of series D75, D80, and D85 have largely played themselves out.

Demographic and Economic Trends

A review of demographic and economic trends over the past quarter century helps put these different projections into perspective and guides the choice among them. Simplifying somewhat, Marion County’s population trend consists of decline in the 1960s, growth in the 1970s, decline in the 1980s, and stability in the 1990s. Its population was 64,000 in 1960, 61,000 in 1970, 66,000 in 1980, and 57,000 in 1990 and 1996.

Figure 1 provides a key to understanding the four projection series and their differences. It covers 1969 to 1996. The most noteworthy features are the increase from 1975 through 1979, the sharp decline until 1989, and the relatively stability since then. The three projection series that incorporate all or part of the migration experience from 1979 through 1989 do not predict growth. The one series that begins anew at 1990 predicts growth. The key question then is whether Marion County in fact began anew in 1989 and left behind its vulnerability to boom and bust cycles.

Figure 1. Population change, Marion County, 1969-96.

The employment data support the contention that Marion County’s worst days are behind it. Total employment hit bottom in 1986 at 23,000 jobs but was 26,000 in 1996. Thus, for a decade total employment has been growing, although with some fluctuations as can be seen in Figure 2. In broader historical perspective, Marion County employment has moved back toward its quarter-century peak of 27,400 in 1977.

Figure 2. Total employment, Marion County, 1969-96.

The dominance of the nine straight years of decline is apparent in Figure 3, which shows the annual growth rate of employment. The more recent period is characterized by fluctuations but on balance growth.

Figure 3. Annual percentage change, Marion County employment, 1969/70-1995/96.

Yet the changes have led to a markedly different Marion County economy. The declines have occurred primarily in manufacturing and mining and continue to this day. Combined they have lost 4,500 jobs since 1979. At the same time, services and government added 3,000 jobs to the Marion economy. The three largest sectors in the economy are now services (26% of total jobs), retail trade (19%), and government (18%). Manufacturing now accounts for 9% and mining 5%.

This economic transformation of the Marion economy, painful as it has been, is one reason to have more faith in the D90 projections. The major declines in manufacturing and mining have already occurred, and the county is far less vulnerable to the future of those sectors. At its peak during the past quarter century, manufacturing accounted for one of every four jobs in the county; now it accounts for fewer than one in ten. Likewise, mining dropped from one in seven to one in twenty. Figure 4 shows the time path of this decline, while Figure 5 shows the time path of Marion’s present leading sectors. Table 2 presents the actual employment figures for selected years.

Figure 4. Trends in three major declining sectors, 1969-96.

Development Factors and Trends Analysis: Part 1 | Part2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5