The future need for transportation improvements in Marion County will be intrinsically related to changes in the socioeconomic characteristics of the County. The distribution and size of population and employment concentrations in the County will have a major effect on future travel demand. Sound transportation planning must attempt to anticipate changes in these factors and the changes in travel demand that will result.

As part of this study, these factors were investigated extensively. The results were detailed in the Existing Conditions Report and the Development Factors Report. As it relates to the Plan’s final recommendations, the basic conclusions regarding these factors are summarized below.

As with other sections of West Virginia, population trends in Marion County and Fairmont have been volatile over the last two decades. However, population projections developed for Marion County as part of this study suggest that the root causes of that volatility, dependence of the local economy on mining and heavy manufacturing, has subsided. In the recent past, population in Marion County peaked at about 66,000 in 1979.

During the 1980s, Marion County experienced a decline in population that ended in 1990, when population stabilized at just over 57,000. Since that time, estimates prepared by the U.S. Bureau of the Census show a gradual trend of population increase with the estimated 1995 population at about 57,700.

Population projections prepared for Marion County as a part of this study indicate a continuation of that trend over the planning period. By year 2020, the projections indicate a County population slightly over 63,000. The population history and projected trend for Marion County are illustrated in Figure 2.

Over the last three decades, the three-county region including Fairmont, Morgantown, and Clarksburg has experienced significant changes in the regional economy. In particular, the coal mining industry, a mainstay of the economy in northern West Virginia, has gone through a period of significant decline: a change brought about by the declining use

Figure 2 – Population History and Future Projections for Marion County

of high sulfur soft coal in response to shifts in public policy regarding air pollution. The manufacturing sector of the West Virginia economy has also experienced significant decline in keeping with larger national economic trends. These trends reflect an overall shift in the national economic structure. In West Virginia, however, they have had greater impact than in other areas due to the historic importance of these sectors of the economy.

Through the active promotion of the "High Tech Corridor," the three-county area has been one of the more proactive regions in West Virginia in responding to these challenges. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Criminal Justice Information Service in Harrison County, the NASA Independent Software Verification and Validation Center, the West Virginia High Technology Consortium housed at the Alan B. Mollohan Innovation Center in Marion County, and the successful development of industrial parks along I-79 by the Fairmont Industrial & Credit Corporation are all manifestations of this shift in the regional

economy. Based on the trends that have occurred in the three-county region over the past twenty-five years, employment projections were prepared for Marion County for the planning period. These projections forecast an increase of 4,506 jobs in Marion County over the planning period. These projections are listed in Table 1. The projections incorporate a continuation of the decline in both mining and manufacturing employment over the planning period. Increases are seen in the services sector of the economy in construction, retail, and forestry, and in government and government enterprises.

Next Section: Socioeconomic Factors - Part 2